MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9879d05cd11740e1151a48c9752e6ed28cbab462669c01fc361423981a7e9f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Astros, White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Astros | 70c | 20,485$14,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,145.54 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed White Sox | 30c | 20,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked White Sox | 33c | 13,119$4,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,338.54 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked White Sox | 30c | 12,310$3,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.05 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Astros | 70c | 8,437$5,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.56 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed White Sox | 47c | 7,486$3,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.25 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Astros | 37c | 5,752$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,648.79 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Astros | 59c | 5,017$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.37 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Astros | 69c | 3,894$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.14 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Astros | 68c | 3,147$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.02 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Astros | 63c | 3,028$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.31 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed White Sox | 38c | 2,541$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.27 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Astros | 71c | 2,395$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.79 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Astros | 65c | 1,785$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.77 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Astros | 66c | 1,696$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.5 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 67c | 1,602$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.56 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 69c | 1,377$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.29 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Astros | 68c | 1,300$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Astros | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed White Sox | 68c | 904.41$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Astros | 71c | 845.07$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Astros | 62c | 826.73$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.89 | 196 | 56.1%110 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed White Sox | 31c | 608.1$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.84 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked White Sox | 29c | 481.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.76 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed White Sox | 34c | 479$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed White Sox | 38c | 459.48$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.89 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed White Sox | 31c | 445.89$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed White Sox | 34c | 350$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…b63bbacked White Sox | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…75f7backed Astros | 70c | 330$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked White Sox | 33c | 300.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked White Sox | 34c | 295.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed White Sox | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Astros | 31c | 187.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Astros | 69c | 154$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Astros | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed White Sox | 31c | 144$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…7d78backed Astros | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed White Sox | 34c | 127.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Astros | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked White Sox | 34c | 109.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Astros | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…85d5backed Astros | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Astros | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked White Sox | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Astros | 71c | 67.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Astros | 32c | 64.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked White Sox | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 71c | 59.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…ae49backed Astros | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Astros | 70c | 57.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked Astros | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed White Sox | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed White Sox | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Astros | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.