Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9890b54c5ffabcb7bc90c61c7e228232cd6c7817b76b6e9b318d07dad4ef84aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DSC Arminia Bielefeldof FC Schalke 04, DSC Arminia Bielefeld
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,179 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 74c | 1,796$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed FC Schalke 04 | 26c | 1,001$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.25 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed FC Schalke 04 | 26c | 767.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 74c | 406.8$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 74c | 328.89$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked FC Schalke 04 | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed FC Schalke 04 | 26c | 199.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200d…f117backed FC Schalke 04 | 27c | 137.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Schalke 04 | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Schalke 04 | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 64c | 41.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed FC Schalke 04 | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 72c | 30.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed FC Schalke 04 | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 74c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 73c | 14.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.