Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea8543cac92554977cede162bfbf1f407008cc008435817a5cf96369a7dba204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,378 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 2,898$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 34c | 1,378$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.37 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 21c | 902.42$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.51 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 16c | 556.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 41c | 346$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 331.22$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Over | 28c | 301.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 72c | 273.64$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 263.01$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 29c | 208.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 41c | 173$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 152.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 41c | 86.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 41c | 86.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 73c | 44.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under | 71c | 24.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 77c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Under | 73c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Under | 72c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.