TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,558 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f09…9312backed Over54c6,491$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c4,560$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.823,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c4,149$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.331,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under48c2,738$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.52846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under48c2,582$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.161,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c2,283$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.0353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Over51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.995152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf617…80c9backed Under49c1,722$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over46c1,470$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.24839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under51c1,000$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.722755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over52c987.99$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7612861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over52c807.69$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42014260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under50c796$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3984949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Over30c653.74$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.213729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over18c651$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6203…5544backed Under44c615.04$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.422657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Under49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Under48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21631145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Over52c375.67$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3511843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c1…a528backed Under49c363.96$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.62333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42df…bb2fbacked Over19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575834.5%20 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under45c282.51$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.045928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under49c249.98$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7449647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under58c215.55$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.091,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over30c213.33$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over53c201.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.93145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over50c201$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10610246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10211543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under47c197.37$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7820545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc385…8eb0backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005066%33 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc734…aaa5backed Under50c180$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8470…b1e3backed Under50c164$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3bb…67cdbacked Over49c162$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…84f5backed Over50c161$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34c8…d6ddbacked Under49c160$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Over66c158.92$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over53c158.49$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8418958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Over65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under49c152.62$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3948146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over59c151.55$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9025352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Under48c149.15$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.562860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+33.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7de9…c5afbacked Over52c138.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under49c125$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf479…0fe3backed Over52c124.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.831963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5138845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over48c81.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395939%23 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c16…c36fbacked Over34c79.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.22634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over52c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.412843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff44…20d4backed Over51c65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426d…bdfcbacked Over50c64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96a…9bb8backed Under51c63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Under48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick34cpaid+101.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7f5b…b37ebacked Over50c56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over61c52.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324643.5%20 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca14…e335backed Under51c52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Over47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55836.2%21 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.510454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Under49c49.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.38067.5%54 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under48c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.631,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a8a…0064backed Over50c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xae71…f3b0backed Under51c47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c6…2e9fbacked Over52c44.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.361040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d5…3aa8backed Over50c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba2b…0c59backed Under58c41.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.321855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over51c40.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.576339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf693…995ebacked Under52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.23847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Under49c37.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3aa…6977backed Over50c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe827…567fbacked Over51c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d7e…0b15backed Over51c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd628…04f1backed Over50c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under48c30.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.951172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb292…0502backed Under50c30.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb7…a64dbacked Over51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under50c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under74c28.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5712064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a3f…8d1dbacked Over51c28.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e8…006fbacked Over50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa306…9746backed Over53c27.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1a…c4aebacked Over51c25.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16e…0be4backed Under48c25.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c7…dddfbacked Over54c23.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc7…296dbacked Under50c23.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe339…1ba6backed Over50c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Under79c20.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.226100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+85.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.