Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcea934bd192fc39415aa6f3018c00abd78476e7a5150de9d6c7a1e2094762004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Yes | 25c | 5,834$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 75c | 4,164$3,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.58 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 823.88$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.87 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 582.29$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 77c | 576.87$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Yes | 55c | 364.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 280$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 55c | 183.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 70c | 156.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 79c | 117$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed No | 20c | 112.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 78c | 106.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 92.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 44c | 91.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 45c | 86.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 56c | 54.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…b088backed Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 45c | 23.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.