Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92049010898f37c17ed1fd4e54f6fa28a4452fa9027cf95f5ca2580831c8c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,528 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 10,928$4,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,473.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 54c | 8,669$4,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,681.38 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 43c | 7,647$3,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,385.04 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c45…0ac6backed Over | 47c | 2,144$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 77c | 1,988$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.53 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 55c | 1,833$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 1,801$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 1,609$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.85 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…18f9backed Over | 78c | 1,458$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 49c | 837.14$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 10c | 736.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.99 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 48c | 629.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 620.6$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 56c | 537.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 57c | 529.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Over | 40c | 500$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 78c | 462.04$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 77c | 350$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 10c | 278.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…8974backed Under | 23c | 247.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 70c | 235.71$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Under | 12c | 222$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 46c | 212.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…e132backed Over | 75c | 211$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 74c | 202.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 57c | 176.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 55c | 159.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…f7d2backed Under | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 134.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 80c | 132.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…a63ebacked Under | 20c | 132.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 46c | 109.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 53c | 106.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 79c | 103.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Under | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…2b46backed Over | 75c | 88.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 40c | 86.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 86.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 47c | 83.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 78.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Under | 32c | 52.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Over | 53c | 37.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 42c | 35.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 45c | 33.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 40c | 26.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Under | 45c | 24.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 53c | 22.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.