Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a086f29a7d6414664317b3af11def6a2dd53e64f30cb012d5041ea40301f25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof PARIVISION, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Aurora | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PARIVISION | 22c | 850.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…f09bbacked Aurora | 78c | 807.22$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.59 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 26c | 781.75$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed PARIVISION | 26c | 735.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f3c6backed Aurora | 74c | 520.26$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Aurora | 75c | 196.41$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked PARIVISION | 30c | 140.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc0…9d48backed Aurora | 70c | 128.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed PARIVISION | 24c | 104.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora | 66c | 51.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…a73ebacked PARIVISION | 26c | 41.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…28fabacked PARIVISION | 39c | 29.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Aurora | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…52fabacked PARIVISION | 53c | 27.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked PARIVISION | 42c | 26.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…ad93backed Aurora | 76c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora | 70c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Aurora | 78c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.