Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe34f198174b5361dd6d26b94156310bafcb47f148759fe27a7f59da252f96bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof PARIVISION, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $891,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,063,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $891,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 440 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION | 54c | 87,071$46,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,663.66 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION | 56c | 68,360$38,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,531.36 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora | 43c | 41,208$17,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,581.22 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…204cbacked Aurora | 46c | 39,246$17,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,355.17 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 43c | 35,475$15,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,292.19 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora | 44c | 27,986$12,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,535.47 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…f361backed PARIVISION | 54c | 23,568$12,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,638.79 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 17,500$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,900 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…f3b5backed Aurora | 46c | 15,947$7,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,611.21 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Aurora | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,099.99 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 43c | 14,268$6,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,085.07 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora | 46c | 14,000$6,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,510 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed PARIVISION | 57c | 13,750$7,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,837.49 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed PARIVISION | 36c | 12,025$4,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,285.62 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Aurora | 47c | 11,044$5,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,853.46 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Aurora | 47c | 10,485$4,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,516.69 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Aurora | 53c | 10,416$5,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,905.97 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Aurora | 47c | 10,000$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,350 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed PARIVISION | 22c | 9,970$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.93 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed PARIVISION | 46c | 9,486$4,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,325.69 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed PARIVISION | 1c | 8,888$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 8,185$3,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657.4 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed PARIVISION | 57c | 8,000$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,559.99 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed PARIVISION | 48c | 7,733$3,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,741.23 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed PARIVISION | 57c | 7,410$4,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,205.31 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 49c | 7,336$3,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,718.72 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…b814backed PARIVISION | 58c | 6,993$4,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,055.77 | 241 | 53.1%128 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION | 32c | 6,746$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.81 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed Aurora | 72c | 6,479$4,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.56 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Aurora | 68c | 6,372$4,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.91 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 63c | 6,014$3,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.42 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed PARIVISION | 30c | 5,838$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.71 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d11…99cabacked Aurora | 50c | 5,818$2,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.84 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 47c | 5,723$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.62 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed PARIVISION | 56c | 5,549$3,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.52 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 5,434$3,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,121.99 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Aurora | 71c | 4,870$3,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.84 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked PARIVISION | 30c | 4,870$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.99 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Aurora | 45c | 4,732$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.45 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION | 48c | 4,692$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.82 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 56c | 4,521$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.39 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked PARIVISION | 40c | 4,370$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.08 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…f76cbacked Aurora | 59c | 4,346$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.07 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION | 45c | 4,265$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.78 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked PARIVISION | 30c | 4,234$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.59 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed PARIVISION | 57c | 4,213$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.24 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9031…554bbacked Aurora | 78c | 4,206$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.71 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed PARIVISION | 57c | 4,200$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed PARIVISION | 40c | 4,135$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.81 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Aurora | 47c | 4,121$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.11 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked PARIVISION | 59c | 4,050$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.69 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Aurora | 71c | 4,022$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.38 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed PARIVISION | 58c | 3,949$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.39 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION | 56c | 3,823$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.91 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed PARIVISION | 34c | 3,749$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.89 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora | 43c | 3,546$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.27 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora | 43c | 3,535$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.22 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…e7d0backed PARIVISION | 53c | 3,505$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.63 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed PARIVISION | 42c | 3,435$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.1 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed PARIVISION | 44c | 3,285$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.92 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Aurora | 44c | 3,251$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.35 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION | 49c | 3,202$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.84 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Aurora | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Aurora | 46c | 2,800$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Aurora | 45c | 2,792$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.86 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…3d54backed PARIVISION | 53c | 2,774$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.05 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…7d57backed Aurora | 43c | 2,534$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.12 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 44c | 2,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed PARIVISION | 48c | 2,497$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.27 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Aurora | 48c | 2,422$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.74 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…cae6backed PARIVISION | 58c | 2,300$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed PARIVISION | 46c | 2,253$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.69 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora | 43c | 2,252$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.33 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Aurora | 44c | 2,212$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.19 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…80d0backed Aurora | 73c | 2,189$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.71 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…44fbbacked PARIVISION | 44c | 2,155$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.06 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed PARIVISION | 17c | 2,147$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.84 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 46c | 2,139$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.74 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed PARIVISION | 57c | 2,100$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Aurora | 50c | 2,050$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.35 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Aurora | 48c | 2,018$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.53 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Aurora | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Aurora | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked PARIVISION | 56c | 1,947$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.43 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4c…5082backed Aurora | 44c | 1,933$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.37 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.16 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 46c | 1,750$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.99 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 61c | 1,605$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.42 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed PARIVISION | 45c | 1,552$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.57 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 53c | 1,505$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…fc41backed Aurora | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 70c | 1,423$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.53 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 55c | 1,353$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.56 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed PARIVISION | 44c | 1,310$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.78 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed PARIVISION | 58c | 1,276$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.36 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6117…2fafbacked Aurora | 77c | 1,276$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.03 | 173 | 73.4%127 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…5cb1backed Aurora | 55c | 1,265$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Aurora | 43c | 1,213$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.33 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.