Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25937d7cbdfe827c02c1335456de97403ff4b6fa2ef99def704e02b8a9ff05e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Over | 45c | 1,605$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.59 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 65c | 1,081$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.88 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Over | 49c | 865.2$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.25 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 51c | 772.84$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.57 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Over | 49c | 601.76$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.06 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 50c | 485$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Under | 55c | 442.27$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.25 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 52c | 393.69$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Under | 55c | 354.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.15 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Under | 55c | 311.36$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.25 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 48c | 245.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 203.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 51c | 197.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 50c | 176.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…e997backed Over | 51c | 150.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 50c | 109.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…f2c0backed Over | 51c | 108.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 51c | 102.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…85f2backed Over | 51c | 99.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0f32backed Over | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Over | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…f245backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Over | 43c | 32.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Over | 77c | 31.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 51c | 30.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 47c | 25.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed Over | 62c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.