Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c72335203622389b014c06fa6fbc96a37e6e7d499d0de1d3d6a5b99f9d0a22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Invictus Gamingof Invictus Gaming, Team WE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Team WE | 53c | 50,000$26,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,500 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Invictus Gaming | 47c | 49,424$23,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,194.93 | 559 | 55.8%312 W · 247 L | +50.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Team WE | 51c | 14,369$7,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,328.38 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | +32.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…381bbacked Invictus Gaming | 49c | 9,892$4,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,044.84 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…ff4bbacked Team WE | 55c | 5,975$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,285.04 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…d034backed Team WE | 54c | 5,838$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Team WE | 53c | 5,828$3,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,076.52 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Invictus Gaming | 47c | 5,606$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.01 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked Invictus Gaming | 47c | 4,369$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Invictus Gaming | 45c | 4,038$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.63 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Team WE | 52c | 2,663$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.23 | 440 | 47.5%209 W · 231 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b690backed Invictus Gaming | 45c | 1,756$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.8 | 825 | 54.8%452 W · 373 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team WE | 48c | 1,462$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.04 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 969.4$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.39 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…2040backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 890.25$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.03 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Invictus Gaming | 56c | 873.18$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.45 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Team WE | 54c | 777$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.58 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Invictus Gaming | 49c | 775.51$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 692.43$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.14 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Invictus Gaming | 47c | 618$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.54 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Invictus Gaming | 38c | 595.16$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.06 | 557 | 44%245 W · 312 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team WE | 51c | 584.47$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Team WE | 53c | 489.36$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.36 | 313 | 37.7%118 W · 195 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…3f07backed Invictus Gaming | 47c | 473.8$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.11 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…6163backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 468.11$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.37 | 453 | 66%299 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…c6dbbacked Invictus Gaming | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 390.59$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 857 | 46.3%397 W · 460 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team WE | 58c | 374.37$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Team WE | 53c | 350$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…589dbacked Invictus Gaming | 49c | 346.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Invictus Gaming | 46c | 325.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.86 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…4088backed Invictus Gaming | 47c | 321.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Team WE | 54c | 295.88$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.46 | 299 | 44.1%132 W · 167 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Invictus Gaming | 48c | 293.87$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.07 | 1,242 | 42.6%529 W · 713 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Team WE | 55c | 284.89$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.65 | 493 | 46.5%229 W · 264 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Invictus Gaming | 58c | 253.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Team WE | 46c | 246.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Invictus Gaming | 47c | 234.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 205.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…838bbacked Invictus Gaming | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 122 | 70.5%86 W · 36 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Invictus Gaming | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Invictus Gaming | 47c | 142.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Team WE | 54c | 126.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 1,114 | 35%390 W · 724 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Invictus Gaming | 46c | 125.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 99.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 92.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 415 | 44.6%185 W · 230 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Team WE | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 474 | 55.3%262 W · 212 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Team WE | 52c | 90.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Team WE | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ac…0317backed Invictus Gaming | 39c | 86.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Invictus Gaming | 55c | 84.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Team WE | 45c | 79.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 154 | 33.1%51 W · 103 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 69.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 411 | 56.7%233 W · 178 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team WE | 31c | 67.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…5fafbacked Team WE | 55c | 67.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 567 | 44.8%254 W · 313 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Invictus Gaming | 46c | 62.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Invictus Gaming | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 537 | 53.6%288 W · 249 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Team WE | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Team WE | 47c | 59.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…6358backed Invictus Gaming | 48c | 59.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Invictus Gaming | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Team WE | 52c | 57.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 372 | 45.2%168 W · 204 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250b…861fbacked Team WE | 53c | 53.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Invictus Gaming | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 596 | 47.7%284 W · 312 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…b4dabacked Invictus Gaming | 49c | 39.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…3165backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Invictus Gaming | 46c | 39.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Invictus Gaming | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | -33.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d48…f5a2backed Team WE | 53c | 36.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Invictus Gaming | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 432 | 33.8%146 W · 286 L | -20.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Team WE | 49c | 30.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Invictus Gaming | 49c | 29.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Team WE | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…89d6backed Team WE | 53c | 27.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked Invictus Gaming | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Invictus Gaming | 54c | 22.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team WE | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Team WE won
- LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.