Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ee34d2a8950aecd76ec4dbf4ee9a10ef40063982d084f1de8fb83d5350369c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Under | 26c | 3,782$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.73 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +230.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Under | 18c | 2,412$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 2,300$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.14 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 8c | 1,798$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 9c | 1,678$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 4c | 997.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 8c | 872.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Over | 73c | 824.72$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 14c | 804.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Under | 8c | 743.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…5a78backed Over | 80c | 695.04$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 13c | 524.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 7c | 448.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +165.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Under | 24c | 429.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…a73abacked Under | 5c | 413.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 27c | 322.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 15c | 318.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Over | 75c | 245$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 9c | 232.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0693…9679backed Under | 7c | 223.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under | 18c | 167.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…54ffbacked Under | 13c | 108.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 14c | 103.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 18c | 90.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 80c | 88.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…3c8bbacked Over | 75c | 29.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 0.5this page
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: FC Arouca O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: FC Porto O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.