Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733c5755c17e24c309ec3cb4a36829498fc190bf85cb58165dd1c20b4f335d7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 78c | 9,209$7,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.71 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 5,036$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Over | 17c | 2,930$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 2,653$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.76 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 18c | 2,273$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.55 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…afcebacked Over | 21c | 2,096$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 76c | 1,307$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 79c | 1,183$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 36c | 644$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 631.53$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 22c | 511.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…30f9backed Over | 18c | 496.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 285.74$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 80c | 245.09$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…b081backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 30c | 197.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 18c | 158.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 9c | 152.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 126 | 64.3%81 W · 45 L | +16.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…f219backed Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 16c | 146.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 79c | 132.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…1b3cbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 119.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 34c | 113.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 19c | 112.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 260 | 51.5%134 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…2542backed Over | 47c | 99.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 26c | 91.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 24c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Over | 22c | 78.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 18c | 67.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 17c | 64.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 18c | 61.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 220 | 62.3%137 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 56.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 60c | 56.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 46.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 40c | 37.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 36c | 33.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Over | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Over | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 21.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: FC Arouca O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: FC Porto O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.