Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990e013fcc7183b895c5efa1924dd02ca35d106b2bd2721ffb755ab9a1a4f31e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 288.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 192.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 26c | 135.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 102.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 93.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 13c | 82.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 79.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 78.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 73c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 34c | 73.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 69c | 66.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 59.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 58.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 47.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 74c | 39.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 65c | 38.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 30.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 30.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 37c | 29.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 68c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 71c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 68c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.