Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d0ab0a0b6b1701bc4278493bce77880243952aa4389daafcc7b5aac6817e05b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,292$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 34c | 803$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.3 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 687.03$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 455.88$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.02 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 442$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 40c | 370.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 369.31$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 213.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 202.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 42c | 194.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 187.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 37c | 185$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 176$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 174.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 157.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 153.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 68c | 143.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 33c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 15c | 124.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 60c | 123.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 48c | 102.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 99.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 66c | 93.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 93.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked Yes | 79c | 89.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 87.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 78.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 75.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 75.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 45c | 67.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 57.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 34c | 57.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 54.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 48.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…abc5backed Yes | 65c | 48.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 45.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 43.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 41.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 58c | 41.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 36.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 36.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 36.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 35.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 27.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 25.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 22.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 71c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 20.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…01e0backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…2444backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 60c | 18.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 71c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 17.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 63c | 16.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 79c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 70c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.