Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9915e46b481a12a9c9c8d97a36e3220bafeffc0237fe2906b14af3851e5ecbf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 8c | 280.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 261.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.32 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 261.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 249.2$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 22c | 218.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 218.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 212$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 190.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 129.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 101$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 21c | 77.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 77.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 78c | 76.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 75.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 73.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 73.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 71.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 54.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 19c | 53.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 51.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…a01fbacked No | 79c | 48.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 38.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 38.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 37.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 33.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 35c | 29.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 28.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 80c | 26.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 21.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 18.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.