Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5bdf74c4892227c6560cc4c9fdd3b837ed5ab40532c2572978a65fd7344dd3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 66c | 650.88$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.36 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47c…ed25backed Yes | 11c | 433.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 332.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 229.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 206.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 30c | 196.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 169.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 7c | 147.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 141.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 136.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 132.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 110.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 67c | 97.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 83.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 66c | 81.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 78c | 69.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 65.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 62.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 64c | 60.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 58.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 58.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 58.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 26c | 50.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…c1bebacked Yes | 77c | 50.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 70c | 40.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 67c | 39.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…24e2backed No | 74c | 36.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 74c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 27.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 26.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…769cbacked No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.