Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$77.5 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99235517b00b2f3c329d6866102525908deb1fe801436c1aaf49820200ccb177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Yes | 2c | 12,161$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 1c | 7,385$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,617$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,440$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…e9adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,079$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,740$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…a7cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,585$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…7d0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…bcf2backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1178…8f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 2c | 999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 6c | 847.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +221.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca2…0951backed Yes | 7c | 692.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 510.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…4997backed Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +214.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 8c | 340$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8ab9backed Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 7c | 263.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…4d66backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed Yes | 8c | 137.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…9d4dbacked Yes | 12c | 127.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…939cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$77.5 in January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$72.5 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $72.5-$75 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $77.5-$80 in January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$82.5 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $82.5-$85 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at <$70 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.