TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$256,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,035 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d12…eabfbacked Yes1c54,771$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes2c19,108$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.561040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8081…95cabacked Yes1c8,316$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes1c6,828$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.051723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,553$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.041,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7488…4959backed Yes1c6,259$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1312…a7cbbacked Yes0c6,189$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes23c3,259$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.583218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid+167.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No36c2,228$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.676651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa963…e9adbacked Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x047c…a41ebacked Yes1c1,893$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b0…203bbacked Yes1c1,833$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc548…e66cbacked Yes32c1,659$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.28110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b77…b3f2backed Yes72c1,618$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.4830%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No14c1,596$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.15329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes2c1,529$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.021010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7612…4a43backed Yes12c1,335$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec9…f879backed Yes43c1,325$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf44c…6d6cbacked Yes2c1,272$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No35c1,180$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.274163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed No64c1,019$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.041926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes42c777.43$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.1632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…28bdbacked No3c742.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick27cpaid+366.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No55c710.97$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.021080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f4f…6232backed Yes57c687.17$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.282528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x047c…a5abbacked Yes36c637.78$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No72c601.9$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.61966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdff…65a9backed Yes50c572.01$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No29c556.2$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.73565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24cb…1f0cbacked Yes9c550$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb9…afbbbacked Yes9c550$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d50…436fbacked Yes9c550$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.540%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes35c540.46$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.513435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb3…b498backed No71c456.78$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f18…171dbacked Yes46c455.13$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18ee…5d95backed Yes24c454.6$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No4c424.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.155617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes76c423.26$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.924520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No3c406.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.559312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes73c405.44$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2974626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c396.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0716516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f30…9897backed Yes70c365.83$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No77c362.25$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.172850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked No50c355.68$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.06742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8622…cdc9backed No12c352.1$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+315.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No4c346.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.221145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid+186%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No64c318.18$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.06977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac13…6506backed Yes45c313.55$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403815.8%6 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-54.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No7c293.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.192157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No47c279.59$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.386041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes62c264.73$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.153119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes60c259.18$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.691435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No24c240.88$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.255100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+98.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4396…f0e1backed Yes28c240$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed No8c231.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.812536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b2…0478backed Yes43c230.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No20c212$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.663781.1%30 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x99da…ab9ebacked No7c209.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+648.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe78f…218ebacked Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.53164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No56c199.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec85…8ba8backed Yes58c182.05$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.363354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f8…63febacked No18c169.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+182.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41d1…939cbacked Yes37c166.8$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-74.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No71c156.46$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No63c147.9$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7413858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No56c136.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.681353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed No9c130.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+462%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed No68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick44cpaid+115.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c117.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.471,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98a7…a2d5backed Yes44c114.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeec7…b634backed No18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.112231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02aa…c515backed Yes31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb641…fc39backed No14c109.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.592437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…b048backed No14c109.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.591421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d3a…3658backed No32c107.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked No29c104.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+221.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x034e…8048backed Yes24c102.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No32c101.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.814856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb7…c068backed No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…264cbacked No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a5…d54cbacked No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x576f…5254backed No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes42c92.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.47333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed Yes57c90$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.352268.2%15 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No65c89.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes47c89.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.376719.4%13 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes24c87.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aaf…2e8dbacked No18c83.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.331533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x323b…6ed9backed No78c82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed No53c77.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x864f…3ae7backed Yes78c76.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No56c76.4$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.395135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No56c76.08$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.419442.6%40 W · 54 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4189…0c8fbacked Yes38c75.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No63c75.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8130238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes71c72.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2223846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.