Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$82.5 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a186a70220ba7a0210ce743405353baa3a9b34ffd0050d2ce47d116b5192505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Yes | 2c | 14,861$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 9,709$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.46 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d12…eabfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,920$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 2c | 5,144$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,740$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,525$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1,044 | 9.2%96 W · 948 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…3d76backed Yes | 4c | 4,490$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…a7cbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,828$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…e9adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,097$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,832$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,789$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 1c | 1,685$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca2…0951backed Yes | 7c | 680.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Yes | 7c | 649.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 608.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed Yes | 39c | 515.17$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…bcf2backed Yes | 10c | 452.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…a82bbacked Yes | 3c | 419$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 8c | 405.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 9c | 296.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 8c | 286.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…4997backed Yes | 7c | 185$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +214.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 6c | 183.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 8c | 173.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…9d4dbacked Yes | 10c | 157.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 143.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 8c | 142.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 9c | 139.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$82.5 in January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$72.5 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $72.5-$75 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$77.5 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $77.5-$80 in January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $82.5-$85 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at <$70 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.