Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$70 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0b490995eed481c4a34ae6a2dcdd63fbd382daf06ae8880576847d403a1926c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Yes | 1c | 9,970$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 4,071$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 71c | 2,831$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.59 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…63febacked Yes | 5c | 2,575$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +182.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…7d0cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…e9adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,038$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,854$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 9c | 1,531$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 68c | 804.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.34 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 25c | 758.49$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 30c | 700$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 73c | 616.7$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.33 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 499.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 58c | 434.86$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.58 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…bd59backed No | 55c | 400.27$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 19c | 361.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 21c | 350$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 19c | 347.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 322.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f27…e0d6backed Yes | 5c | 314.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 20c | 289.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…9e68backed No | 70c | 284.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e8…2443backed Yes | 33c | 265$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1542backed No | 74c | 264.59$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.40per pick | 45cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…b906backed Yes | 44c | 262.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 229.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…0429backed Yes | 22c | 218.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 166.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f54…adfebacked No | 58c | 161.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 53c | 131.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 21c | 118.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…f803backed Yes | 17c | 114.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a0b7backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…8afdbacked No | 64c | 97.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 21c | 87.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf961…54c8backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 36c | 67.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…3681backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 28c | 45.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…13a5backed Yes | 42c | 41.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed No | 78c | 39.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…63cbbacked Yes | 30c | 36.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…c66cbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) settle at <$70 in January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$72.5 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $72.5-$75 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$77.5 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $77.5-$80 in January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$82.5 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $82.5-$85 in January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.