Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x992c69173f73834cba0fbc29f857135ce9254d407ca20d4bd1f54fe9c4bd9c1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4eab…3b41backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 565.67$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 54c | 556.92$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 495$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 45c | 321.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.87 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 253$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 47c | 210$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 59c | 189.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 168.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 47c | 166.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 45c | 158.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 144.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 23c | 126.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked Yes | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 38c | 124.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 116.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 113.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 46c | 103$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 102.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 98.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 93.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 43c | 88.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 83.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 55c | 83.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 55c | 81.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 52c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 73.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 46c | 71.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…9888backed Yes | 48c | 71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 68.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 54c | 66.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 64.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 47c | 63.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 61.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 44c | 60.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 46c | 52.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 59c | 51.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 51.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 52c | 50.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed No | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…4a71backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 36.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 64c | 36.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 36.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 44c | 35.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 34.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…42d0backed Yes | 40c | 32.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 49c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 41c | 28.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 55c | 27.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 58c | 25.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 51c | 25.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 24.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…97f4backed No | 53c | 22.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 58c | 21.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 57c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 49c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 59c | 17.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.