Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99318810053642094f239f4615b160583f607f00623b91cfe32c4e30cead54d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 15c | 379.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 373.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 29c | 356$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 303.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 19c | 265.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 257.67$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 226.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 203.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 22c | 199.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 195.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…2cdabacked Yes | 20c | 195.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 77c | 194.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 78c | 168.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 153.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca2…5d9dbacked Yes | 19c | 151.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 135$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 134.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 126.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…b238backed Yes | 21c | 117.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 79c | 116.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 110.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 110.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 105.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 13c | 103.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 24c | 100.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 78c | 85.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 82.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 76.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 74.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 77c | 64.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 62.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 51.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 47.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 38.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 77c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 19.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.