Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781f0c364ba3e681df717c9b6739ab1ecd8d3dbd7af6755a0f66502cc2fac84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 646.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 15c | 476.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 26c | 436.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.45 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 418.07$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 413$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.49 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 30c | 314.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 240$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 239.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 29c | 230.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed No | 74c | 230.37$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 224.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 76c | 218.79$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 211.4$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 194.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 27c | 186.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked No | 48c | 185.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 184$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 181.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 177.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 174.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 168.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 78c | 146.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 142.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 33c | 142$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 135.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 135.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 126.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 24c | 120.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c2f0backed No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 108.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 105.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 105.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 99.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 97.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 93.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 92.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 29c | 88.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9878…c920backed Yes | 29c | 85.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 82.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 25c | 82.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 72.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 67.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 66.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 63.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 62.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 75c | 61.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 55.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 21c | 52.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 51.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 30c | 50.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 47.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 65c | 41.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…9fcfbacked No | 71c | 39.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 39.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 80c | 37.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 80c | 37.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 72c | 33.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 30.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 74c | 29.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 75c | 27.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 27.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 75c | 26.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 76c | 24.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 23.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 76c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 15.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 77c | 13.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.