Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22d6b1592c28fc502e6bf7d9a7c408ca4a2a27cc15aa5040099730d88e19998e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,643$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 630.45$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.01 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 54c | 309.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 240$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 43c | 216.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 206.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 205.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 195.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 192.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 184$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 176$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 56c | 173.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 166.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 164.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 148.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 46c | 141.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 46c | 139.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 135.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 54c | 125.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 39c | 120.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 109.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 105.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 48c | 105.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 99.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 97.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 57c | 97.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 53c | 94.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 81.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 66c | 80.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 49c | 74.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 55c | 73.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ef…4caabacked Yes | 56c | 68.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 67.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 64.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 49c | 62.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 61.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 61.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 59.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 44c | 54.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 45c | 54.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 52.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 51.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked No | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 38c | 50.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…cf15backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…2842backed No | 52c | 47.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 47.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 51c | 44.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 56c | 44.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No | 46c | 43.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…a8b5backed No | 52c | 39.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 38.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 38.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 45c | 37.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…125ebacked No | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 41c | 36.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 34.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 34.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 47c | 32.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…8ce3backed Yes | 61c | 32.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked No | 44c | 32.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 32.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 30.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes | 50c | 29.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 50c | 28.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 42c | 26.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 58c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 24.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 24.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.