Tennis · resolved market
ITF Luan: Alina Tikhonova vs Naho Sato
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99523dbb73bc36a28bc1bff441abb9ccb5213d9a1223e9655d68b26885ac3f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alina Tikhonovaof Alina Tikhonova, Naho Sato
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Naho Sato | 20c | 11,704$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290 | 713 | 29.7%212 W · 501 L | -39.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Alina Tikhonova | 64c | 4,263$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.77 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alina Tikhonova | 73c | 3,953$2,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.65 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Naho Sato | 41c | 2,026$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.4 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alina Tikhonova | 75c | 1,181$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.61 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Naho Sato | 29c | 987.8$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.47 | 271 | 31.4%85 W · 186 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Naho Sato | 39c | 510.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…20c0backed Alina Tikhonova | 67c | 438.09$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Alina Tikhonova | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Naho Sato | 32c | 271.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 3,541 | 42.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L | -44.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Naho Sato | 32c | 234.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 459 | 35.5%163 W · 296 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Naho Sato | 19c | 229.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…ac97backed Naho Sato | 49c | 205.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 52.2%105 W · 96 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…ad6abacked Alina Tikhonova | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Naho Sato | 44c | 160.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Naho Sato | 35c | 151.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Naho Sato | 35c | 145.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,412 | 39.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L | -11.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Naho Sato | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,001 | 38.4%384 W · 617 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Naho Sato | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Naho Sato | 37c | 126.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Naho Sato | 35c | 122.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,142 | 37.3%799 W · 1,343 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Alina Tikhonova | 55c | 105.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…a25cbacked Naho Sato | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Alina Tikhonova | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 394 | 44.4%175 W · 219 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Naho Sato | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 2,575 | 46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Alina Tikhonova | 63c | 94.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Naho Sato | 46c | 76.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Naho Sato | 39c | 73.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 2,821 | 39.5%1,113 W · 1,708 L | -82.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Naho Sato | 36c | 71.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 932 | 58.5%545 W · 387 L | +22.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Naho Sato | 43c | 71.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 421 | 51.1%215 W · 206 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alina Tikhonova | 65c | 67.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,657 | 44.2%733 W · 924 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Naho Sato | 41c | 63.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Naho Sato | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…c9c0backed Alina Tikhonova | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Alina Tikhonova | 58c | 42.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Alina Tikhonova | 68c | 36.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Alina Tikhonova | 60c | 31.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Alina Tikhonova | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,806 | 40.9%739 W · 1,067 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…d9ebbacked Alina Tikhonova | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Alina Tikhonova | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…47f5backed Alina Tikhonova | 71c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Alina Tikhonova | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.