Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x995ce8b8d11953d46d99f6eff53b59d59501ce705feef2019755c526ec233481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 25c | 592.16$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 460.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 327.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 20c | 305.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 78c | 295.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 239.33$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 191.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 21c | 185$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 146.63$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 141.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 126.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 120.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 89.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 85.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 80.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 75.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 18c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1325…8fd1backed No | 79c | 63.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 53.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…bbfebacked Yes | 22c | 52.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 46.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 45.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 41.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…e755backed No | 79c | 37.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 78c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…e377backed No | 73c | 19.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.