Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7e13b0cf0535fba9d75a3f251285af39e0f6b9b342ce896aef847a5dbeb17bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 27c | 550.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 380.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 292.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 26c | 265.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 263.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 21c | 256$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 217.27$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 15c | 215.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 26c | 196.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 71c | 179.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 176.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 164.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…4eebbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 137.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 101.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 27c | 99.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 98.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 79.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 30c | 71.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 24c | 65.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 30c | 63.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 56.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 28c | 53.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 43.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 32c | 40.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 34.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 33.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 33.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 72c | 14.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.