Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ae0291fff8d63d298aef4a3f16ea99b3c91b72997692a6fbff4909e7060e55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Wisconsin Badgers, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 6,000$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.81 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 5,349$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.93 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 5,272$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.61 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 4,849$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.77 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 70c | 1,332$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.16 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 1,094$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.06 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 801$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 12c | 655.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 553.34$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 524.07$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.79 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 75.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 59.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…d04abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 47.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…556abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 35.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 31.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…462fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 19.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)this page
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 160.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.