Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c315bdf04f6403c7ec8c31a8a0dc2bfe6ae5f39d318827ce2b0dfa17968641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 77c | 3,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.67 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 2,419$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,998$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.49 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 1,901$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.05 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Yes | 24c | 937.5$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 707.62$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.87 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 73c | 700$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…93c6backed Yes | 26c | 523.96$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 13c | 426$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.62 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 370$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 10c | 333$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 50c | 240.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 229.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 78c | 219.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.74 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 212$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 25c | 208$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 8c | 202.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.66 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 72c | 200.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 25c | 198.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.95 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Yes | 25c | 184$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 13c | 163.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…4d9abacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 62c | 94.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 94.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 26c | 75.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 23c | 68.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 24c | 41.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 25c | 41.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…09ddbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 77c | 37.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 21.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…fc22backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-30?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.