Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c9da726dba8a31e41ec9cf613ba9890794705f43e08ae59ad4e12ea3a7cfce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 27c | 581.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 63c | 395.06$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 72c | 339.2$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 77c | 285.13$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 48c | 244.79$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 233.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 210.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 72c | 200.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 199.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 50c | 192.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 51c | 181.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 158.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 33c | 143.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 74c | 117.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 13c | 116.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 73c | 99.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 79c | 97.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 31c | 91.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 55c | 89.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 87.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 86.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 40c | 79.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 41c | 72.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 67c | 70.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 45c | 66.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 60.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 65c | 59.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 35c | 57.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 35c | 53.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 47.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 56c | 46.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 51c | 46.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 45.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 49c | 44.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 68c | 42.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 50c | 41.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 46c | 40.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 40.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 38c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 34.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 54c | 33.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 69c | 24.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Yes | 51c | 24.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 49c | 20.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 50c | 20.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 73c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 77c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 67c | 17.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 53°F or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.