World Politics · resolved market
Reform wins between 19% and 23% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99dae9d036b8b4f2f5f38023ff369c3b082276204e12eb9b5a9cae6fec082ea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc831…9973backed No | 73c | 800$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 28c | 750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed No | 76c | 729.08$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…6a38backed Yes | 30c | 274.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 21c | 251.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…4088backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 51c | 190$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 28c | 122.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 27c | 100.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 26c | 97.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Reform wins between 19% and 23% of votes?this page
- Reform wins <7% of votes?No won
- Reform wins >23% of votes?No won
- Reform wins between 11% and 15% of votes?Yes won
- Reform wins between 15% and 19% of votes?No won
- Reform wins between 7% and 11% of votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.