World Politics · resolved market
Reform wins between 15% and 19% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb690e95c2f0edd8f8f4b09f4ab46f5ef53fb04800e786c08f4e837e9dc34fa55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 47c | 4,632$2,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 53c | 4,623$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,241$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.74 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 33c | 655$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.25 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 34c | 335.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…f98bbacked Yes | 15c | 252.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…6a38backed Yes | 33c | 250$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 38c | 164.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 36c | 127.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 33c | 98.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 25c | 57.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…5857backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 68c | 47.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Reform wins between 15% and 19% of votes?this page
- Reform wins <7% of votes?No won
- Reform wins >23% of votes?No won
- Reform wins between 11% and 15% of votes?Yes won
- Reform wins between 19% and 23% of votes?No won
- Reform wins between 7% and 11% of votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.