Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ded365bef3da9a9e7249e4d5a45fb8309fd668236781f0d3fb13f2bb727eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5e8…bf25backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 1,778$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 1,317$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.85 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 968.05$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.06 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 34c | 421.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 13c | 420$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 22c | 396.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 26c | 299.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 268.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 75c | 262.14$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 32c | 251.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 247.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 245.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 230$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 202.9$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 184$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 160.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 120.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 98.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 29c | 95.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 68c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 73.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 29c | 65.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 53.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 67c | 51.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 66c | 51.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 38.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 72c | 31.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 30.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 65c | 26.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…4526backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…1810backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…1243backed No | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 11?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.