NBA · resolved market
NBA Summer League: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99f19c8cfd5b496fa61a7db9a1e8b22129517ba95f55641df6ef4abb7d84e880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Timberwolvesof New Orleans Pelicans, Minnesota Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked New Orleans Pelicans | 1c | 9,523$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…052bbacked New Orleans Pelicans | 43c | 3,281$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked New Orleans Pelicans | 42c | 2,277$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.66 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 59c | 2,169$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.88 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 54c | 1,114$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed New Orleans Pelicans | 29c | 1,063$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.77 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 58c | 799.83$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.17 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…63d1backed New Orleans Pelicans | 25c | 398.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 58c | 383$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…7c32backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 64c | 357.34$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked New Orleans Pelicans | 22c | 254.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 56c | 225.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 65c | 222.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed New Orleans Pelicans | 37c | 215.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked New Orleans Pelicans | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed New Orleans Pelicans | 15c | 149.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 56c | 146.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 59c | 105.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 63c | 83.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 62c | 64.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 46c | 36.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 58c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed New Orleans Pelicans | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.