TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,279
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,279 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8302…8b44backed Yes15c1,936$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5111737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x886d…c586backed Yes22c495.67$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.722339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes3c478.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.062,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes12c455.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9146733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c409.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.775,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c379.64$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c362.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.277,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes22c259.91$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9310640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes17c249.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5825037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c194.42$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.614,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c175.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.472,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes22c172.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7239535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c162.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.353,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed05…9368backed Yes21c160.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.681723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes16c155.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.937912.7%10 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No75c154.52$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.352,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes38c148.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8225344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf228…8accbacked No73c132.9$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes35c131.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.781822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No76c127.7$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.054170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb14d…8f95backed Yes23c124.75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.192524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c108.47$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes25c101$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2511038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid+0.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4046232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes21c99.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.377728.6%22 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes23c93.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7611423.7%27 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No76c81.87$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.691,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c75.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9290…1257backed Yes18c75.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No50c69.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.571,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes24c65.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0678…a21dbacked Yes16c63.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No79c63.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.251,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes23c63.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6411038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes21c60.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.587939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes53c60.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7639541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0964…9da4backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No79c57.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6536…0cf6backed Yes40c56.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.564320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b7…91f8backed No77c54.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.57777.9%60 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No62c51.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2252155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No77c50.2$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes46c49.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.795644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No80c48.44$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes25c48.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0111341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b153backed No80c47.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.484864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No65c46.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.416456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce7e…4019backed Yes23c44.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No76c44.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8517570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6282…5bf0backed Yes28c44.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.47875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No75c41.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.487754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No34c41.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6520431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0321…19fabacked Yes51c38.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes49c37.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.515731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes30c37.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.082147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf466…fce0backed Yes28c37.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes38c36.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7740242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6029…231abacked No72c36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No77c34.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.897266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00db…c663backed No72c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No76c32.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.953547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.262,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde39…f9abbacked Yes37c30.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.126738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No77c25.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6640777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked No46c24.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.468270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No57c23.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c22.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.069,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4dd…8744backed No77c21.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.851361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No72c20.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7924768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No65c19.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0227771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ef…2c9cbacked No78c18.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.14540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-41.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No56c18.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.217546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2af…43b9backed No72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+83.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No70c16.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No72c15.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.419059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.98366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No78c14.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.261,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.