TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bad…b337backed No4c1,726$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8932310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c770.28$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes39c568.69$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.7546733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes22c538.97$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.921,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c434.33$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.1817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed No17c419.7$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.625344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes22c414.53$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.165,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes24c372.28$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.8542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c344.09$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.587,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No77c252.77$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.142,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c243.31$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.582,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No16c183.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3117949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes57c177.61$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9419047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes57c176.25$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6612147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes27c175.91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.161,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes24c155.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5410640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes60c128.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7716529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes30c122.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5839535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c122.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.984,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd760…5b2abacked No76c120.25$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes23c117.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c115.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.723,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked No60c110.77$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4313215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked No78c108.98$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.551711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid+0.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c105.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.487,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No22c100.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.981,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No79c100.14$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes28c99.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes12c93.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8711423.7%27 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes12c92.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.857038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes12c92.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0611038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f1…f029backed No65c87.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes13c84.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7416944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…6b01backed Yes18c75.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.521457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid+11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde39…f9abbacked Yes26c71.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes31c68.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0611038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No17c66.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5869520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked No59c63.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.398270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No79c59.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1814671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No79c59.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4722675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb14d…8f95backed Yes32c57.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.132524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes27c55.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5613537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No69c54.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.867266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No72c49.16$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6372952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No29c44.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9157232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No72c44.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8821429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed No66c44.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.041758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes41c42.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.741,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No79c41.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0520266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No68c40.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3216456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes33c40.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9211833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes26c38.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No48c38.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4452155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes33c37.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9755942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c36.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes38c34.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No70c33.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5540777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No77c33.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.447754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c31.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a3…2fe6backed No37c31.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.770%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed No40c29.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No80c29.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8be9…845fbacked No74c29.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.776063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c29.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.968,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No74c29.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.591,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No78c27.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6211664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No80c27.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9542469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No78c25.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes49c25.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9486420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb345…23d5backed No68c24.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.881662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes51c24.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1326533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No68c21.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5217376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.28366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No74c19.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.619666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x675c…5af6backed Yes64c19.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.964967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c17.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.229,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed No71c16.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5310652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa8f…492bbacked No79c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.851154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick74cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x715e…c3b0backed No71c14.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d28…f59fbacked No74c13.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.09366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.