Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or below on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfcf16193f26fcca351174c4e7f2af0ac17f6e982927c6e8095a10181bfb8edc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 6c | 1,540$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 960.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes | 53c | 903.86$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 15c | 639.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 8c | 568.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 37c | 462.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.48 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 438.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 381.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 24c | 360.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 10c | 348.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 336.12$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 302.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 6c | 288.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…b55cbacked Yes | 32c | 280.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 265.52$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…f177backed Yes | 8c | 249.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 78c | 225.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 9c | 198.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 6c | 197.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 188.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 174.81$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 15c | 148.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 37c | 144$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 135.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…8f81backed Yes | 17c | 131.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 21c | 121.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked Yes | 13c | 109.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 106.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed Yes | 15c | 104.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 98.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 14c | 92.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 21c | 88.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 85.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…ffa2backed Yes | 12c | 83.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed Yes | 13c | 81.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 72c | 75.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 24c | 70.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 68.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 18c | 65.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 78c | 64.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f9abbacked Yes | 16c | 62.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 79c | 54.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Yes | 20c | 54.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa463…6e3bbacked Yes | 28c | 50.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 43c | 41.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 63c | 38.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 73c | 32.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 79c | 30.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 70c | 30.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 63c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 69c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or below on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.