WNBA · resolved market
Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a5692fca7b62dc429772f617799b37fa49299d5eb017b726b0c87dabb511732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof PortlandFire, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 916.67$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 674$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 354.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 39c | 100.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Connecticut Sun | 63c | 91.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed PortlandFire | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…f9c0backed PortlandFire | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed PortlandFire | 46c | 26.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 26.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 627 | 46.9%294 W · 333 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PortlandFire | 45c | 23.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 904 | 49.4%447 W · 457 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Portland FirePortland Fire won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.