Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a61a28e3df43e17cc1fdf93c0273b62cd8d5137eb9b936d7437c59b2842858a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 43c | 490.56$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.61 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 459.47$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 295.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 267$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 70c | 264.58$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 264.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 242.06$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 32c | 237.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 24c | 223.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 213.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 28c | 210$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes | 31c | 185.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 179.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 62c | 169.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 34c | 146.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 142.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 140.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 123.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 72c | 122.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 117.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 117.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 110.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 109.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 104.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…cc5abacked Yes | 31c | 100.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 25c | 97.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 95.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 94.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 87.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 77.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 68.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 63c | 67.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 78c | 63.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 24c | 60.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 78c | 59.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 29c | 57.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 28c | 56.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 28c | 55.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 71c | 51.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…9416backed No | 61c | 49.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 69c | 47.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 43.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 69c | 42.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…7102backed Yes | 32c | 41.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 69c | 39.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 36.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 36.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 35.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…9f16backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 38c | 34.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…757fbacked No | 77c | 32.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 71c | 31.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed No | 67c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 75c | 27.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 71c | 26.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 58c | 24.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 66c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 75c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 18.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 64c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1357backed No | 61c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 15.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.