TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes58c669.74$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes47c638.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No42c596.01$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.972,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes63c577.66$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.488947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c449.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No13c430.47$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2463323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c417.53$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.688,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes44c365.2$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No44c289.86$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0131542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes53c287.38$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.121,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes53c263.8$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.375,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes54c230.1$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0635233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes80c217.02$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.422450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes52c178.07$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.221,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes66c147.65$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9154043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked No45c141.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.616376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No39c136.64$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes67c134.51$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.231442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No47c126.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6097570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No47c116.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.52,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c102.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5068335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d8…555fbacked Yes52c97.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.572343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…5401backed No39c93.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.391136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No50c87.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8521676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed No37c86.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2312226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No27c81.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.892,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes40c81.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.989,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes61c78.48$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.426240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed No50c75.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.616845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No47c72.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9419547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes53c71.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6733450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9547…1bf5backed Yes52c66.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.993441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes54c65.86$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.326566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes42c64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3726344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No43c62.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.891,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes57c61.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.911,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes54c61.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.334,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No48c61.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.472,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c60.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.467,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No17c58.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No49c57.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.484037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes51c57.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes50c54.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.511331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3193…cc5abacked Yes75c54.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No49c50.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.537942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.515435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a6…9964backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda26…8fefbacked Yes51c49.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No49c47.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5120942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes45c47.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9934934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes54c46.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5219059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No48c46.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x989a…befcbacked Yes52c45.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.111747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No48c45.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8627464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa1f…af40backed Yes53c44.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.934837.5%18 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes64c44.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.973655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f2c…6e24backed No49c38.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23423.5%8 W · 26 L-10.9wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes50c38.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4540242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c38.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes54c38.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6223743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebd2…0d5dbacked No49c37.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed No50c37.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.717061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes50c36.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f1…30d1backed Yes53c35.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes78c35.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6611362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No48c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6514671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6924…b011backed Yes40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1076…9416backed No48c33.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes53c30.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.331,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed No49c30.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes41c29.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5335137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed Yes59c29.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.097639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes50c29.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No49c29.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2455538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes67c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6552444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No48c28.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.669462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No50c27.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9118272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes53c26.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7417138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0adb…9eb8backed No54c26.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.442556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No48c25.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1617066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes54c24.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1429770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No50c23.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8122675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes58c23.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.031,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c23.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.195,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes51c23.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4211729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes65c23.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e93…d386backed Yes79c22.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.723100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81a6…62f0backed Yes65c22.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…527ebacked No49c22.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-80.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes63c22.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.221547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b66…db0abacked Yes57c21.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.382250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No47c21.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No51c21.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9811664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.