Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ff1b52b0226f0ad52011fb6afbabfd9781b0368ceeb361b4224da2b842f513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 669.74$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.91 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 47c | 638.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.86 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 596.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 63c | 577.66$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.48 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 449.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 430.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 417.53$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 365.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 44c | 289.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 287.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 263.8$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 54c | 230.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 80c | 217.02$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 52c | 178.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 66c | 147.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 45c | 141.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 136.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 67c | 134.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 47c | 126.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 47c | 116.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 102.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 52c | 97.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed No | 39c | 93.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 50c | 87.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 37c | 86.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 81.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 81.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 61c | 78.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 50c | 75.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 72.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 53c | 71.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 52c | 66.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 54c | 65.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 62.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 57c | 61.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 61.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 61.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 60.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 17c | 58.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 49c | 57.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 51c | 57.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 50c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…cc5abacked Yes | 75c | 54.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 49c | 50.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…9964backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…8fefbacked Yes | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 49c | 47.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 54c | 46.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 48c | 46.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 52c | 45.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 48c | 45.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 53c | 44.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 64c | 44.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 49c | 38.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 38.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 38.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 54c | 38.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…0d5dbacked No | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 50c | 37.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes | 50c | 36.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…30d1backed Yes | 53c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 78c | 35.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…9416backed No | 48c | 33.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 53c | 30.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 49c | 30.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 29.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 59c | 29.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 49c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 48c | 28.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 50c | 27.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 53c | 26.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 54c | 26.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 48c | 25.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 54c | 24.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 50c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 58c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 23.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 51c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…d386backed Yes | 79c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…62f0backed Yes | 65c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…527ebacked No | 49c | 22.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 57c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 47c | 21.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 51c | 21.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.