Mls · resolved market
Will Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a62cab0c39445cfc9fccf4244148687476c735874afc813bd41ba9ceac1bffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1509…ca95backed No | 76c | 4,414$3,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 3,584$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.16 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 72c | 1,315$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.21 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 31c | 1,150$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.48 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 881.54$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.57 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 18c | 540.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 18c | 540.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 520.38$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 24c | 416.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 18c | 270.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 263.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 22c | 260.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 245.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 25c | 200.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b6…99b4backed Yes | 28c | 191$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 18c | 187$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 17c | 166.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 164.2$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 150.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 16c | 138$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 63c | 135$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…00fcbacked No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 108$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 79c | 83.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 15c | 78.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…6a4dbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Yes | 24c | 54.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 24c | 51.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 77c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 73c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlanta United FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.