Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Learner Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a6e7f59d7796923b864ebc15974df76f3aeca8f5d1a21f348c60a69f48dfd0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Moutet, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Moutet | 65c | 8,516$5,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,520.79 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Tien | 36c | 6,400$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,066.55 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Moutet | 48c | 6,000$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.05 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Moutet | 56c | 5,810$3,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250.85 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tien | 48c | 5,152$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.74 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Tien | 47c | 2,150$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.11 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Tien | 49c | 2,038$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.94 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Tien | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.99 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Moutet | 58c | 1,491$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.23 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Moutet | 49c | 1,108$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.84 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Moutet | 54c | 1,103$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.62 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tien | 34c | 1,087$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.42 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Tien | 74c | 893.71$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.9 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Moutet | 53c | 755.04$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.76 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Tien | 67c | 598.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.67 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Moutet | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Moutet | 34c | 525.41$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Moutet | 54c | 424.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Moutet | 71c | 415.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.34 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Moutet | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Tien | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Moutet | 53c | 393.96$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Tien | 3c | 380.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.15 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Tien | 50c | 375$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.66 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tien | 11c | 344$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.48 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Tien | 60c | 334$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Tien | 51c | 333$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Tien | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Moutet | 65c | 313$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.22 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tien | 47c | 292.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Tien | 52c | 251.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Moutet | 44c | 226.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Moutet | 55c | 225.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Tien | 46c | 218$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Tien | 21c | 186.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Moutet | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Tien | 21c | 121.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tien | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Tien | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Tien | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Tien | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Tien | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Tien | 42c | 52.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tien | 51c | 50.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Tien | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Tien | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Tien | 35c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Tien | 48c | 43.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Moutet | 52c | 43.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tien | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.