Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ada4f982f6553d3b29c0daa760aaff0965bda6d5805f79f0062c7b312f2f837
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 2,114$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.98 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 57c | 1,086$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 55c | 993.79$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.59 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 557.43$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.86 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 43c | 448.14$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.44 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 200.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 45c | 166.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 63c | 144$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 121.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 45c | 105.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 89.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 80.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 43c | 68.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 197 | 29.9%59 W · 138 L | -21.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…7f8abacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 44c | 42.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 46c | 24.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: Moreirense FC (-1.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.