Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0af4bbec5344250d1cbc875d7bc13877364da1dd04968a9bf19c67ff9019825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 6,417$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,133 | 142 | 17.6%25 W · 117 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 4,225$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354.04 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 2,540$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.65 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 24c | 1,970$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.26 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 1,460$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.89 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 77c | 953.19$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.23 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 414.08$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.52 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Over | 21c | 363.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.83 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 75c | 328.16$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 279.63$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 76c | 217.67$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 79c | 196$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.84 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 155.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 67c | 146.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 110 | 22.7%25 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 104.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 41c | 101.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 59c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 47c | 91.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 79c | 87.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 53c | 69.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…6562backed Over | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 24c | 56.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over | 58c | 51.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 69c | 35.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 80c | 35.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 126 | 64.3%81 W · 45 L | +16.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 34c | 33.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Under | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 54c | 22.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…5166backed Over | 49c | 21.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked Over | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-2.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: Moreirense FC (-1.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.