CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9afdc74a8f9287cca37d4e4b1b711c4020c96b7bf6740e1ad6a06ba63c68d4fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7645…3117backed Astralis | 67c | 4,068$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,723.69 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Aurora Gaming | 33c | 2,854$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.55 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Aurora Gaming | 33c | 909.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.41 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Aurora Gaming | 33c | 612.12$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.12 | 279 | 50.2%140 W · 139 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Astralis | 68c | 440$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…8b34backed Astralis | 72c | 416.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Aurora Gaming | 31c | 283.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.6 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Aurora Gaming | 29c | 259.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora Gaming | 27c | 201.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Astralis | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Astralis | 70c | 141.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Aurora Gaming | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Aurora Gaming | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Astralis | 70c | 71.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…3778backed Aurora Gaming | 33c | 65.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Aurora Gaming | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…db7dbacked Aurora Gaming | 34c | 60.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Aurora Gaming | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 45.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…ec11backed Astralis | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Astralis | 69c | 40.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Astralis | 64c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996e…900ebacked Astralis | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…990abacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.