MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b0fdfee3f634cc665b0e4d77261abc296ca6eedaadbe1f3f45924c945a9c0d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 5,402$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 5,222$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Under | 1c | 4,783$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 3,223$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 6c | 2,394$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 12c | 1,374$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Over | 37c | 1,026$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.6 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 8c | 900$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 12c | 883.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 48c | 833.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 11c | 789.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 634.42$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 38c | 518.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.96 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 62c | 455.84$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 4c | 315.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Under | 65c | 309.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 282.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 54c | 181.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 74c | 82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 63c | 75.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 35c | 61.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 72c | 56.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 53c | 53.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Under | 64c | 46.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 48c | 35.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 32c | 32.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 70c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 57c | 25.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 58c | 19.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.