MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7c0232eaf185861edd7fb49fdbc0699dad42d8cd6583240cb7712f04b2ce45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 24,277$12,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,664.6 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 21,382$9,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,835.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 15,962$7,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,538.36 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,900 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Houston Astros | 47c | 7,832$3,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,688.9 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 4,314$2,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.27 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 3,482$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 54c | 2,342$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 37c | 2,246$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 2,192$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 1,874$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.07 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 1,673$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…0784backed Houston Astros | 46c | 1,585$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros | 48c | 1,306$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.08 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 54c | 1,052$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 750.37$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 600$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 403$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.47 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 337$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.76 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 330.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 240$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 134.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…7d07backed Houston Astros | 48c | 125.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 122.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 117$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Houston Astros | 38c | 113.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 95.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 73.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Houston Astros | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 61.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Houston Astros | 48c | 52.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 45c | 47.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 43.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Houston Astros | 50c | 40.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 39.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Houston Astros | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Houston Astros | 47c | 32.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…25cbbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…2079backed Houston Astros | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Houston Astros | 45c | 24.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.