MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ebe1d90edd3a73b869d6f19f748da799cb6f809849cfe1f10b9e05785b6196
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 12,114$5,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,814.78 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 8,082$4,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,833.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Over | 52c | 2,437$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 48c | 2,421$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 47c | 2,000$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.85 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 1,994$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 59c | 1,112$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.69 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 1,012$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.65 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 52c | 764.67$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.04 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 599.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 52c | 552.4$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.15 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 535$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 36c | 451.03$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 443.6$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 53c | 380$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 62c | 362.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 52c | 313$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 58c | 281.46$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 272.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 254.91$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…bda7backed Over | 68c | 205.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 200.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 51c | 152.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 46c | 111.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 52c | 99.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 52c | 87.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 49c | 68.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 62c | 63.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 68c | 55.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 54c | 51.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 50.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 52c | 49.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 49.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…a9cfbacked Under | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Over | 52c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 52c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…bef3backed Under | 48c | 33.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 66c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 52c | 28.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 28.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Over | 52c | 27.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 24.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 58c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 52c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-5.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.