Tennis · resolved market
Chennai Open: Mei Yamaguchi vs Francesca Jones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b17b593d13783c78425b905f6ec082f11d8b540eb35e2024183b79ae3c70abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yamaguchiof Yamaguchi, Jones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yamaguchi | 20c | 6,369$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,116.46 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Jones | 57c | 2,849$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.27 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Jones | 79c | 2,477$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.25 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…05a8backed Jones | 56c | 1,784$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Yamaguchi | 13c | 1,400$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.93 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…e4e3backed Yamaguchi | 18c | 1,330$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Jones | 12c | 1,144$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…0ddbbacked Yamaguchi | 15c | 1,100$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +308%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jones | 69c | 779.82$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.74 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yamaguchi | 25c | 668.32$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.08 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yamaguchi | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yamaguchi | 42c | 631.98$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.49 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Jones | 52c | 599.98$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.24 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Yamaguchi | 18c | 587.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.72 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yamaguchi | 48c | 549.84$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.09 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Yamaguchi | 69c | 482.33$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…3913backed Yamaguchi | 37c | 406.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yamaguchi | 11c | 270.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…9e9fbacked Jones | 72c | 259$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yamaguchi | 68c | 234.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Yamaguchi | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…1f1abacked Yamaguchi | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yamaguchi | 72c | 152$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yamaguchi | 13c | 150$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Yamaguchi | 32c | 140.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…a005backed Yamaguchi | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9f…48ebbacked Yamaguchi | 57c | 113.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yamaguchi | 47c | 108.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d66…3c95backed Yamaguchi | 39c | 103.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…b28cbacked Yamaguchi | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Jones | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…e7a1backed Jones | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…d2d8backed Yamaguchi | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Yamaguchi | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Jones | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.