TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Redsof Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,706 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds52c2,150$1,114 inWon+$1,036.672,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals40c2,113$836 inLost-$835.5212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds54c1,158$631 inWon+$527.4611,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Cincinnati Reds64c1,056$676 inWon+$380.2691252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds58c735.47$427 inWon+$308.95,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals48c731.87$352 inLost-$351.696,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Kansas City Royals47c665.72$313 inLost-$312.891,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals47c638.19$299 inLost-$299.13,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Kansas City Royals47c550.1$261 inLost-$260.5997050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds55c429.2$236 inWon+$193.623,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds69c356.59$246 inWon+$110.398,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds75c256.77$191 inWon+$65.48,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals47c235.65$111 inLost-$110.762,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Kansas City Royals27c203.7$55 inLost-$5563943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Kansas City Royals48c182.46$87 inLost-$87.091,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Kansas City Royals47c155.23$73 inLost-$72.9623140.3%93 W · 138 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Kansas City Royals48c93.21$45 inLost-$44.7432450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals46c60.2$28 inLost-$27.695,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals36c49.61$18 inLost-$17.661,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…e409backed Kansas City Royals69c43.47$30 inLost-$29.998661.6%53 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals50c40.97$20 inLost-$20.345,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Kansas City Royals47c39.98$19 inLost-$18.793661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Kansas City Royals46c39.18$18 inLost-$17.831,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Kansas City Royals48c35.81$17 inLost-$17.1970154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Cincinnati Reds65c34.61$22 inWon+$12.1196349%472 W · 491 L-39.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Kansas City Royals72c34.11$25 inLost-$24.5666056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Kansas City Royals36c29.99$11 inLost-$10.834843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds65c26.16$17 inWon+$9.164,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Cincinnati Reds64c18$12 inWon+$6.481,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x698c…ddc8backed Cincinnati Reds64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.637100%7 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+78.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds69c15.05$10 inWon+$4.61,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.